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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat VVV Venlo 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.90 xG and VVV Venlo 1.47 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VVV Venlo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against VVV Venlo attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 48% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 30%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 54%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, VVV Venlo arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights