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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC and Vitesse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC and Vitesse finished level at 2-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.51 xG and Vitesse 1.59 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.08 against Vitesse attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 58% | Draw 19% | Vitesse 24%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 54%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Vitesse's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights