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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.04 xG and Roda 1.46 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 50% | Draw 23% | Roda 27%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, Roda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.05 PPG, Roda 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights