Almere City FC vs MVV – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Almere City FC welcome MVV to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
MVV — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Almere City FC have won 4, MVV 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 4–0 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
MVV in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 63% versus MVV 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 71% | MVV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.06 xG and MVV 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.870 / defence 0.638 | MVV attack 0.857 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 49 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 67% | Draw 20% | MVV 13%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | MVV 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | MVV 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 67% | Draw 20% | MVV 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Almere City FC 2.06 / MVV 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.870 / def 0.638 | MVV attack 0.857 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
MVV xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs MVV kick off?
Almere City FC vs MVV is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs MVV part of?
Almere City FC vs MVV is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 67% chance of winning, MVV a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Almere City FC and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and MVV?
Record (7 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 1 | MVV 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and MVV in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.87) and MVV's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.04
13%
7.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.85
0.80
MVV xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
7.42
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
13%
7.82
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
2%
58.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.80 for MVV, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 26W 6D 17L from 49 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 23L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 15W 3D 6L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and MVV in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 6D 17L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while MVV have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or MVV away?
Almere City FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 2.00 PPG; MVV away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and MVV runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and MVV?
From 7 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, MVV have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when MVV 0-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and MVV?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, MVV 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 62% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; MVV in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 50% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of MVV's.
Do Almere City FC and MVV tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, MVV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.