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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat MVV 4-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.99 xG and MVV 1.31 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against MVV attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 53% | Draw 22% | MVV 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 52%, MVV 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.75 PPG, MVV 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights