🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Jong Utrecht 4-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.33 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 62% | Draw 19% | Jong Utrecht 19%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 50%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.70 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights