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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Almere City FC 2-4 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.96 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.51 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.10 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 24% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 50%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 46%, Jong PSV U21 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.68 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights