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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Jong Ajax 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Jong Ajax 3-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.50 xG and Jong Ajax 1.17 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.94 against Jong Ajax attack 0.87 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 66% | Draw 18% | Jong Ajax 16%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 56%, Jong Ajax 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.87 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights