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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Dordrecht 4-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.64 xG and Dordrecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 46% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 30%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 60%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights