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Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Den Bosch 3-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Round of 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.32 xG and Den Bosch 1.62 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against Den Bosch attack 1.11 / defence 1.22, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 53% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 27%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 62%, Den Bosch 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.14 PPG, Den Bosch 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights