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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.26 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 54% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.13 PPG, Den Bosch 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights