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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.16 xG and De Graafschap 1.98 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.03 against De Graafschap attack 1.25 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 43% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 36%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights