Almere City FC 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host Cambuur at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cambuur — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 43% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 54% | Cambuur 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.54 xG and Cambuur 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.132 / defence 1.114 | Cambuur attack 1.051 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.403. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Almere City FC games / 49 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 36% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 40%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Cambuur 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 50% | Cambuur 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 36% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Almere City FC 1.54 / Cambuur 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.132 / def 1.114 | Cambuur attack 1.051 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Cambuur xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Cambuur kick off?
Almere City FC vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Cambuur?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Almere City FC vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Cambuur part of?
Almere City FC vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 36% chance of winning, Cambuur a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Almere City FC and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Cambuur in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Cambuur (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
36%
2.77
23%
4.26
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.19
1.64
Cambuur xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.64 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 7W 11D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 28W 7D 9L from 44 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 12W 4D 5L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.86 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 7W 11D 26L in their last 44 games (0.73 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 28W 7D 9L in their last 44 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.86 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cambuur in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Cambuur runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Cambuur?
From 2 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Cambuur 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Cambuur 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Almere City FC) and 43% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 38%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 48% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Almere City FC's recent games and 43% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Cambuur tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.54 xG and Cambuur 1.64 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.11 against Cambuur attack 1.05 / defence 0.77, drawn from 10/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 36% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 40%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 54%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.