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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.31 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.04 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.38 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 24% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights