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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Willem II 5-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.14 xG and Willem II 1.14 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 60% | Draw 20% | Willem II 19%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 58%, Willem II 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights