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Stalemate at ADO Den Haag's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as ADO Den Haag and Vitesse drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.15 xG and Vitesse 1.28 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Vitesse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 57% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 22%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitesse's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights