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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 3-0 hammering of MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat MVV 3-0 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.26 xG and MVV 1.14 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. MVV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against MVV attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 61% | Draw 22% | MVV 17%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 67%, MVV 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights