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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat ADO Den Haag 1-2 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 3.41 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.26 xG, a combined 4.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.45 / defence 0.78 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.06 / defence 1.36, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 78% | Draw 12% | Jong PSV U21 10%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 66%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights