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Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 1-4 hammering of ADO Den Haag.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat ADO Den Haag 1-4 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.00 xG and Jong AZ 1.52 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Jong AZ attack 1.22 / defence 1.07, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 66%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Jong AZ winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights