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Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 0-3 hammering of ADO Den Haag.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat ADO Den Haag 0-3 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG and Jong AZ 1.08 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.00 / defence 0.81 against Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 58% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 20%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Jong AZ 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.70 PPG, Jong AZ 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights