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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.73 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.36 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 43% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 67%, FC Eindhoven 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.59 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights