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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dordrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Dordrecht 3-0 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.19 xG and Dordrecht 1.26 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.36 / defence 0.86 against Dordrecht attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 21%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 59%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.94 PPG, Dordrecht 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights