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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out De Graafschap 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 3-2 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.13 xG and De Graafschap 1.20 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.46 / defence 0.71 against De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 21%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 2.00 PPG, De Graafschap 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights