Virtus Entella 2-2 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 3 as Virtus Entella welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Comunale di Chiavari. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Virtus Entella stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari than their overall form suggests.
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Virtus Entella) versus 1.50 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.80 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 1.009 / defence 1.072 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.705 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.132. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Virtus Entella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Virtus Entella games / 2 Vicenza Virtus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 60% | Draw 23% | Vicenza Virtus 18%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Vicenza Virtus 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Virtus Entella (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Virtus Entella at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Comunale di Chiavari • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 60% | Draw 23% | Vicenza Virtus 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Virtus Entella 1.80 / Vicenza Virtus 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 1.009 / def 1.072 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.705 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Vicenza Virtus xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus?
Virtus Entella 2 - 2 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 60% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (1.01) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.38
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.65
0.86
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
34.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.86 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vicenza Virtus are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Virtus Entella.
The Goals Picture
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus?
From 1 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 50% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Virtus Entella's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari, Regular Season - 3, as Virtus Entella and Vicenza Virtus drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.80 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.86 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.70 / defence 1.34, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 60% | Draw 23% | Vicenza Virtus 18%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 50%, Vicenza Virtus 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Vicenza Virtus arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Virtus Entella scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.