🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Virtus Entella defy the odds to beat Monza 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Monza 1-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.98 xG and Monza 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monza landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Monza attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Virtus Entella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 33%, Monza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Monza's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Virtus Entella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights