Virtus Entella 1-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Monza at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Virtus Entella vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale plays host to Virtus Entella versus Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 10 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Virtus Entella have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Virtus Entella have posted 3W 5D 1L at Stadio Comunale — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Monza have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Monza are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Virtus Entella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 56% versus Monza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Virtus Entella 33% | Monza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 0.98 xG and Monza 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.813 / defence 1.059 | Monza attack 1.148 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.037. Data: 18 Virtus Entella games / 18 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Virtus Entella 67% | Monza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Virtus Entella 0.98 / Monza 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.813 / def 1.059 | Monza attack 1.148 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Monza xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Monza kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Monza?
Virtus Entella 1 - 0 Monza.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Monza part of?
Virtus Entella vs Monza is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 27% chance of winning, Monza a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Virtus Entella and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Monza in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Monza (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Virtus Entella's attack at 0.81x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.15x) against Virtus Entella's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
27%
3.67
32%
3.14
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
Monza xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.26 for Monza, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Virtus Entella have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 3W 7D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 11W 4D 3L from 18 games, 2.06 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Virtus Entella.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Virtus Entella have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (3W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monza have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.50 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Monza in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 games (0.89 PPG), while Monza have gone 11W 4D 3L in their last 18 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 1.56 PPG; Monza away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Virtus Entella or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Virtus Entella have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Monza in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Virtus Entella
0
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 1, Monza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Monza 2-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 67%, Monza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Virtus Entella and 44% for Monza.
On the defensive side: Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Virtus Entella's games and 56% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Virtus Entella vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Monza tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Monza in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Virtus Entella defy the odds to beat Monza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Monza 1-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.98 xG and Monza 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monza landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Monza attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 27% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Virtus Entella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 33%, Monza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Virtus Entella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.