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Prediction vindicated as Virtus Entella edge out Mantova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Mantova 1-0 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.19 xG and Mantova 1.08 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Mantova attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 34% | Draw 37% | Mantova 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Virtus Entella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 0%, Mantova 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mantova arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Virtus Entella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Virtus Entella conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.