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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Virtus Entella and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 22, as Virtus Entella and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 0.99 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 29% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 42%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 29%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Frosinone's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights