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Virtus Entella cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cesena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Cesena 3-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.18 xG and Cesena 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Virtus Entella beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Cesena attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 40% | Draw 31% | Cesena 29%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 26%, Cesena 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Cesena's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Virtus Entella winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights