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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Virtus Entella and Bari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 6, as Virtus Entella and Bari drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.34 xG and Bari 0.82 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bari outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.82 / defence 0.96 against Bari attack 0.74 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 45% | Draw 36% | Bari 19%, with Virtus Entella to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 20%, Bari 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Virtus Entella's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Virtus Entella arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Virtus Entella scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights