Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Virtus Entella at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vicenza Virtus stand at 1W 2D 1L from 4 Serie B matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Virtus Entella have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vicenza Virtus at 1.25 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vicenza Virtus, 0 for Virtus Entella and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Virtus Entella trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 75% and Virtus Entella 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Virtus Entella 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.39 xG and Virtus Entella 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.012 / defence 1.197 | Virtus Entella attack 1.099 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Data: 4 Vicenza Virtus games / 42 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 35% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 41%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Virtus Entella 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Virtus Entella 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 35% | Draw 25% | Virtus Entella 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.39 / Virtus Entella 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.012 / def 1.197 | Virtus Entella attack 1.099 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Virtus Entella xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 35% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.01) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
35%
2.89
25%
4.06
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.92
1.53
Virtus Entella xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.53 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 1.25 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Virtus Entella in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 75%, Virtus Entella at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 75% for Virtus Entella. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Virtus Entella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 75% of Virtus Entella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 75% of Virtus Entella's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.