Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Virtus Entella at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Virtus Entella at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vicenza Virtus stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Virtus Entella have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vicenza Virtus at 0.90 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vicenza Virtus, 0 for Virtus Entella and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Virtus Entella trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Virtus Entella 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Virtus Entella 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.07 xG and Virtus Entella 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.340 | Virtus Entella attack 0.913 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 48 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 45%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Virtus Entella 2.22. Virtus Entella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Virtus Entella are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Virtus Entella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Virtus Entella 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.07 / Virtus Entella 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.340 | Virtus Entella attack 0.913 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Virtus Entella (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Virtus Entella xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Virtus Entella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.84) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Virtus Entella Win
25%
3.98
29%
3.40
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.58
1.51
Virtus Entella xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.96
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.51 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 0.90 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Virtus Entella travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Virtus Entella in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Virtus Entella away?
Virtus Entella's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 75%, Virtus Entella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 50% for Virtus Entella. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Virtus Entella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 50% of Virtus Entella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 50% of Virtus Entella's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.