Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Virtus Entella at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vicenza Virtus stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Virtus Entella have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vicenza Virtus at 1.33 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vicenza Virtus, 0 for Virtus Entella and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Virtus Entella trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 67% and Virtus Entella 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Virtus Entella 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.47 xG and Virtus Entella 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / defence 1.245 | Virtus Entella attack 0.774 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 29%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Virtus Entella 3.45. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vicenza Virtus are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Virtus Entella 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 45% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.47 / Virtus Entella 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / def 1.245 | Virtus Entella attack 0.774 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Virtus Entella xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 45% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.06) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.84
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.58
1.12
Virtus Entella xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.12 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Virtus Entella — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Virtus Entella in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Virtus Entella 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 67%, Virtus Entella at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Virtus Entella. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games; Virtus Entella in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Virtus Entella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 67% of Virtus Entella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Virtus Entella's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.