Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palermo at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus and Palermo meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palermo arrive in superior form — a 0.75 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.25) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Palermo — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 75% and Palermo 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Palermo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.38 xG and Palermo 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.009 / defence 1.195 | Palermo attack 1.116 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.156. Data: 4 Vicenza Virtus games / 42 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 34% | Draw 25% | Palermo 41%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 34% | Draw 25% | Palermo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.38 / Palermo 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.009 / def 1.195 | Palermo attack 1.116 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Palermo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Palermo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 34% chance of winning, Palermo a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.01) and Palermo's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.12x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
34%
2.94
25%
4.03
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.92
1.54
Palermo xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.54 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Palermo in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Palermo have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Vicenza Virtus, 100% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 75% for Palermo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 100% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 75% of Palermo's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Palermo tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.