Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus and Palermo meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1W 1D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palermo arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Palermo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 0W, Palermo 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 1–3 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Palermo — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 70% and Palermo 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 80% | Palermo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.24 xG and Palermo 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.340 | Palermo attack 1.374 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Vicenza Virtus games / 48 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 19% | Draw 22% | Palermo 59%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Palermo 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 75% | Palermo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 19% | Draw 22% | Palermo 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.24 / Palermo 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.340 | Palermo attack 1.374 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Palermo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Palermo xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 19% chance of winning, Palermo a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Palermo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.84) and Palermo's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.37x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
19%
5.37
22%
4.53
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
3.51
2.27
Palermo xG
5.37
19%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
10%
9.67
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
2%
51.96
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 2.27 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 2.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Palermo in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Palermo have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Palermo away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since November 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Palermo?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Palermo 3-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Palermo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Vicenza Virtus, 75% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vicenza Virtus and 50% for Palermo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 75% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 50% of Palermo's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Palermo tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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