Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Empoli to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.12 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Empoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vicenza Virtus 1.12 PPG, Empoli 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Empoli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vicenza Virtus, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2026, ended 2–0 with Vicenza Virtus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Empoli trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 62% versus Empoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Empoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.20 xG and Empoli 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / defence 1.298 | Empoli attack 0.900 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Vicenza Virtus games / 45 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 29% | Draw 29% | Empoli 42%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 29% | Draw 29% | Empoli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.20 / Empoli 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / def 1.298 | Empoli attack 0.900 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Empoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Empoli xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 29% chance of winning, Empoli a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Empoli in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.84) and Empoli's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.47
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.68
1.47
Empoli xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.47 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 1.12 PPG, Empoli on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Empoli travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.88 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Empoli in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Empoli have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Empoli away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.33 PPG; Empoli away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Empoli?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Empoli 0-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Empoli?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 67%, Empoli at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Vicenza Virtus) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 67% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Empoli tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Empoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.