🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Padova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Padova 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.96 xG and Padova 0.82 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against Padova attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 63% | Draw 23% | Padova 14%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 60%, Padova 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Padova's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Padova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights