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Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.30 xG and Modena 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against Modena attack 0.89 / defence 0.76, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 47% | Draw 31% | Modena 22%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Modena 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Modena's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.30 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights