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Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Carrarese 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Carrarese 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.51 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.36 / defence 0.83 against Carrarese attack 1.11 / defence 1.44, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 71% | Draw 17% | Carrarese 12%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 49%, Carrarese 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Carrarese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Venezia 1.24 PPG, Carrarese 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights