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Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Bari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.15 xG and Bari 1.22 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bari attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 33% | Draw 30% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 42%, Bari 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights