🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Venezia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Avellino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Avellino 4-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.83 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Avellino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Avellino attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 59% | Draw 24% | Avellino 17%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 63%, Avellino 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Avellino's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights