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Shock result as Virtus Entella defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Virtus Entella beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.54 xG and Virtus Entella 0.53 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 0.78 against Virtus Entella attack 0.58 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 61% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 11%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Virtus Entella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 39%, Virtus Entella 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.32 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights