🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sudtirol and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 27, as Sudtirol and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.16 xG and Venezia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Venezia attack 1.53 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 42%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Venezia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.23 PPG, Venezia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights