Sudtirol vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Sudtirol take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.20 PPG versus Pisa's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 2 for Pisa and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pisa trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Pisa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Pisa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.04 xG and Pisa 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.819 / defence 0.793 | Pisa attack 1.073 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.203. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Sudtirol games / 11 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 35% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 35% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.04 / Pisa 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.819 / def 0.793 | Pisa attack 1.073 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pisa xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pisa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pisa part of?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
Record (7 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 3 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
35%
2.88
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.06
1.02
Pisa xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.02 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 10W 24D 15L from 49 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 6W 16D 27L across 49 games — 0.69 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 12D 6L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 2W 10D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.94 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 10W 24D 15L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 16D 27L in their last 49 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Pisa away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.25 PPG; Pisa away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 7 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
3
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
From 7 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2026, when Pisa 2-2 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 50%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sudtirol) and 67% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Pisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 67% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Pisa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Pisa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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