Sudtirol vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 2 for Pisa and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Pisa trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Pisa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.30 xG and Pisa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.942 / defence 0.775 | Pisa attack 1.204 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.184. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Sudtirol games / 5 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 28% | Pisa 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 28% | Pisa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Sudtirol 1.30 / Pisa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.942 / def 0.775 | Pisa attack 1.204 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pisa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pisa part of?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sudtirol and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 2 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.61
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.41
1.11
Pisa xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.11 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 10W 20D 13L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 13D 26L across 43 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 9D 6L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 1W 9D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.79 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 10W 20D 13L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 13D 26L in their last 43 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Pisa away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.29 PPG; Pisa away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 48%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sudtirol) and 71% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Pisa in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sudtirol's recent games and 71% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Pisa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Pisa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.