Sudtirol vs Pisa Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Pisa.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Sudtirol have gone 2W 7D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Pisa away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.20 PPG versus Pisa's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2026, ended Sudtirol 2–2 Pisa — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Sudtirol trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Pisa trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Pisa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 35% | Pisa 57%). Note also that Pisa surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.05 xG and Pisa 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.842 / defence 0.788 | Pisa attack 1.037 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Sudtirol have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Pisa's projected output down. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 49 games and Pisa's last 11.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 34% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.93 | Draw 2.95 | Pisa 3.13. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 30% (last 10 away games).

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