Sudtirol 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 54% and Pisa 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.67 xG and Pisa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.107 / defence 1.272 | Pisa attack 1.013 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.137. Data: 46 Sudtirol games / 46 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 26% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 26% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Sudtirol 1.67 / Pisa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.107 / def 1.272 | Pisa attack 1.013 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Pisa xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pisa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Sudtirol 1 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pisa part of?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sudtirol and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.78
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
3.13
1.46
Pisa xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.46 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 15L across 46 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.28 PPG, Pisa on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 9W 4D 9L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.43 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 72%.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Pisa have gone 16W 15D 15L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Pisa away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.41 PPG; Pisa away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 46%, Pisa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 46% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 64% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 46% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Pisa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Pisa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sudtirol 1-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.67 xG and Pisa 1.46 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.11 / defence 1.27 against Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 41% | Draw 26% | Pisa 32%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Pisa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.28 PPG, Pisa 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.