Pisa 3-1 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cesena make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Cesena (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Serie B outings this term — 1.57 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.29. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cesena have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Pisa against 1.57 for Cesena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pisa have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Cesena in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Cesena — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 71% and Cesena 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 57% | Cesena 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.84 xG and Cesena 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.343 / defence 1.021 | Cesena attack 0.729 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.128. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Pisa games / 7 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 59% | Draw 26% | Cesena 15%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Cesena 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 80% | Cesena 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 59% | Draw 26% | Cesena 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Pisa 1.84 / Cesena 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.343 / def 1.021 | Cesena attack 0.729 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Pisa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cesena xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cesena kick off?
Pisa vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cesena?
Pisa 3 - 1 Cesena.
Where is Pisa vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cesena part of?
Pisa vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 59% chance of winning, Cesena a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pisa and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Cesena in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Cesena (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.34) and Cesena's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cesena's attack (0.73x) against Pisa's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.84
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.68
0.84
Cesena xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
42.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Pisa and 0.84 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cesena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cesena, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cesena heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Pisa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cesena's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Cesena in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Cesena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cesena in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Cesena have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cesena away?
Pisa's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 3.00 PPG; Cesena away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cesena?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Cesena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Cesena 1-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cesena?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Pisa, 67% for Cesena — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pisa and 67% for Cesena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cesena in 33%; Cesena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pisa's games and 67% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pisa's matches and 67% of Cesena's.
Do Pisa and Cesena tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cesena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cesena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Cesena 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.84 xG and Cesena 0.84 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Cesena attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 59% | Draw 26% | Cesena 15%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 57%, Cesena 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Cesena's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.