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Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol and Pescara finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.50 xG and Pescara 0.90 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Pescara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Pescara attack 0.96 / defence 1.37, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Pescara 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 38%, Pescara 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pescara's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights