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Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Cosenza 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Cosenza 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.82 xG and Cosenza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 1.39, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 55% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 21%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 52%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Cosenza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.21 PPG, Cosenza 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights