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Dominant Mantova run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sudtirol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Sudtirol 0-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Mantova outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against Mantova attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 35% | Mantova 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mantova's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.18 PPG, Mantova 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights