🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sudtirol and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 17, as Sudtirol and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.29 xG and Mantova 1.28 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.84 / defence 1.41 against Mantova attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 31% | Mantova 34%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 62%, Mantova 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sudtirol's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sudtirol 0.81 PPG, Mantova 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights